Between the Extremes: The Future of Evangelical Engagement in American Politics
In the years since 2016, evangelicals have found themselves increasingly portrayed not as a spiritual movement but as a political bloc. Media coverage, academic discourse, and public narratives often speak of “the evangelical vote” as though it were a demographic more than a community of Christ's followers. This is not simply the result of bias. It is the consequence of our own choices. We have spoken more often in the language of party, platform, and policy than in the language of the kingdom. And this is not to our credit.
There is no question that politics matters. It shapes laws, culture, and public witness. But when politics becomes the primary framework for Christian identity, something essential is lost. Our calling is not to preserve influence. It is to proclaim a kingdom that is not of this world.
The signals around us are growing louder. Political volatility is increasing. While still securing some short-term wins through executive orders and state-level influence, the MAGA movement is facing mounting legal challenges and economic headwinds. Its dominance is not assured. What feels like a rising tide now may become a period of fragmentation, internal conflict, or eventual decline.
Evangelicals may find themselves on the receiving end of that reaction. Our close identification with populist movements has created a reputation that we may not be able to escape easily. Legal pressure, censorship, and public exclusion are not unimaginable. We caught a glimpse of this dynamic during COVID-19, when restrictions on assembly and religious practice were quickly enacted under the banner of public safety. In a future political crisis, those pressure points could return, stronger and more targeted.
At the same time, some younger evangelicals are rethinking political engagement entirely. They are not looking for new candidates or parties. They are looking for a new posture, one shaped more by the Sermon on the Mount than by campaign slogans. They are asking what it means to live faithfully in a world where political power is both seductive and unstable.
Trends and drivers point in several directions. Some Christians will likely double down on culture war politics. Others may retreat into quietism. But a third path is possible, a return to kingdom-speaking. A renewal of public witness that is not defined by fear or power, but by presence, humility, and truth.
Jesus told us plainly that his kingdom is not of this world (John 18:36). Yet he also sent us into this world to teach everything he commanded (Matthew 28:19–20). That includes justice, mercy, and faithfulness. It includes honesty, repentance, and courage. The future of evangelical political engagement must be rooted in these things. Not in partisan victory, but in kingdom fidelity.
If political tides shift again, as history suggests they will, the Church must be ready. Panarchy theory reminds us that all systems move through cycles of growth, collapse, reorganization, and renewal. The chaos of the 2020s may well be a prelude to a deeper realignment in the late 2030s or early 2040s. That realignment may be political, cultural, even spiritual. But it will not be a return to what was. It will be something new. The Church cannot afford to be caught defending the America of the past. It must be ready to serve the Lord faithfully in the future.
This is a time for preparation. It is a time to teach our people how to think clearly, speak compassionately, and live with conviction, not to win arguments but to bear witness. The world may not understand us, but if we are faithful, it may eventually come to trust us again.
Three Scenarios for 2040
Baseline: What if evangelicals continue to align predictably with partisan movements, preserving short-term influence while deepening long-term mistrust?
Collapse: What happens if political backlash intensifies, leading to legal restrictions, deplatforming, and generational disengagement from public faith?
Transformation: What could emerge if the Church reclaims its identity as a kingdom-first community, teaching all that Christ commanded with clarity, humility, and courage?
Keep exploring the signals, trends, and drivers shaping the future. Take the next step by engaging your ministry team in a conversation about what this future could mean for your context through Incite Futures Labs from Forbes Strategies. We help leaders anticipate change, navigate complexity, and build their preferred future. Let’s collaborate!
